Dr. Robert Srygley presented an overview of the USDA’s report on the possible effects on agriculture due to climate changes, March 22 at the Northern Plains Agricultural Research Laboratory.
Every five years, various sectors of the US government update a technical report on the foreseen climate changes and the challenges it may present. The USDA was asked to evaluate the impact in regards to agriculture. Dr. Robert Srygley, insect ecologist with the Northern Plains Agricultural Research Laboratory in Sidney, was a contributing author on the 2013 report.
Dr. Srygley, during a lunch session on March 22, presented the public with an overview of predicted climate changes and its possible affect on many areas of agriculture.
As seen in the recent past, the northwest states have been warming up quickly and significantly, whereas the southeast states have been slowly increasing. Locally, this will most likely cause longer growing seasons and fewer days of frost.
Due to the rapidly warming climate, many areas will be forced to switch to a different crop in order to have success. Dr. Srygley gave a few examples of this. One of the crops that is looked at is wheat, as there will be a shift of the winter and spring wheat crops. The spring wheat, which is currently along the Canadian border, will shift up approximately ten degrees north into Canada. The winter wheat will follow up just below it from the central states. In other parts of the country, fruit trees and wine grapes are also affected. Even though they thrive in warmer states, as the temperatures rise they need cooler temperatures. For instance, apples are sweeter and blueberries will be larger if they are chilled or there is a frost. In fact, in California many wine producers will have to either change to a lower quality grape or shift to a climate where the seasons vary more drastically.
The warming climate and rise in humidity strongly affect cattle. Although enclosures could mitigate the issue, energy costs would rise drastically. The days to slaughter for both swine and beef have been steadily increasing. The southern states have seen more drastic affects on livestock, causing more losses due to the increasing heat and humidity.
The temperature change, although the most obvious, is not the only climate change affecting agriculture.
Plants and subsequently insects are also being affected by another factor, the rise in carbon dioxide levels. Some plants, C4, are considered 'saturated' and are not affected as they will not take in the excess carbon dioxide. C3 plants on the other hand, control their own levels and will struggle to survive. This causes issues as the carbon dioxide levels grow. If you have a C3 crop growing near a C4 weed, the crop will thrive, but if the crop is a C4 it will rarely thrive.
Although most of the plants are already fighting to survive, the insects are thriving. The plants are lacking in nutrition, causing the insects to eat even more to get what they need. The insects favor the increased temperatures as it increases the growing season, prevents winter mortality, speeds up life cycles and the migrating crops help extend their reach. Even though these are all positives for the insects, it may actually hurt agriculture.
As Dr. Srygley stated, "Agriculture has been and will continue to be significantly affected by changes in climate."
The 2013 USDA report is available for viewing and public comment at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/effects.htm
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