It’s that time of the year again where we need to begin thinking about flood season. As any snow on the ground begins to melt, the ground will become more saturated. If we experience a late season snowstorm followed by very high temperatures, rapid snow melt can also cause rivers and streams to begin to flood as they rise out of their banks. Any springtime rains would only exacerbate the situation. In addition, excessive spring rains and summertime thunderstorms can produce flash flooding. Of course not every year brings about a bad flood season; however, now is the time to be reminding ourselves of the risks that flooding poses to life and property and now is the time to be reviewing crucial safety tips so that we are all well prepared for whatever this year’s season dishes up! For additional information on the hazards that flooding often brings, please check out: http://www.floodsafety.noaa.gov.
Also remember that this time of year as ice breaks up in rivers it can begin to accumulate and restrict the flow of streams. This can also lead to localized flooding. There’s a great video of a remarkable ice jam that occurred on the Gallatin River on Christmas Day.
Important Flooding Safety Tips: There are ways of being proactive even well before flooding occurs. Having a plan in place well ahead of time rather than making last minute impulsive decisions will definitely help ensure your safety and the safety of your loved ones.
1) Have a discussion with your family that includes an evacuation plan. If you are all on the same page about what you will do when faced with a flooding situation, you are all likely to execute your plans smoothly and safely, rather than scrambling at the last minute over what to do.
2) Consider carrying flood insurance on your home.
In addition to being prepared in advance, it is also equally critical to keep in mind some tips just in case you are caught in a flood situation. Here are some useful suggestions.
1) Have a way to receive the latest emergency information such as listening to your battery-operated NOAA Weather Radio.
2) If you are asked to evacuate, and it is safe to do so, follow your evacuation plan mentioned above.
3) Keep handy a food survival kit that includes non-perishable food items, important medications, maps, a battery-operated flashlight and a first aid kit.
4) Most importantly remember to adhere to the NWS’s message of “Turn Around, Don’t Drown!” Often times many people misjudge how much water is on the roadway. The water may very well be deeper than it appears to be. In addition to losing control of your vehicle, you never know what you might not be able to see in the water such as downed power lines and other hazards. It is far better to just play it safe and find an alternative route to your destination. It takes less than 2 feet of water to pick up a car and take it downstream!
March Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: The Climate Prediction Center March outlook is below. It currently looks like much of the eastern U.S. has equal chances of above or below normal temperatures while much of the western and northwestern U.S. can expect below normal temperatures. Yes, just when you were ready for spring, they placed northeast Montana in that area of below average temperatures. It looks like much of Texas and the southwestern portions of the U.S. will be anticipating a dry month ahead. The southern Great Lakes region south into the Ohio valley is really the only place expecting a wetter than average month while pretty much everywhere else can experience near normal conditions or equal chances for above or below average precipitation – that includes northeast Montana! The good news is with a colder than average March and near normal precipitation expected in the month ahead for us we may be able to keep snow on the ground from melting too quickly, and this may mean a reduced risk for flooding this season – at least early on in the going!
Growing Season Nearing: As we head into the springtime months there are many individuals who have an interest in growing conditions. Whether it is simply someone looking to plant a garden in her or his own backyard, or if it is a farmer getting ready to begin planting, or someone interested in trading corn, soy, and a number of related commodities in the markets, everyone is starting to wonder about this year’s growing season and what it will bring. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, it appears that much of south central and southeastern Montana is experiencing at least some form of drought conditions. While some of these areas have noted slight improvement in recent weeks, it appears that northeast Montana and perhaps adjacent areas of North Dakota are so far escaping the impacts from drought, although a few areas are a bit below normal for moisture in the short term. Whether or not that trend continues will have a huge impact in the coming months on the growing season this year. For more information on drought conditions on a national scale, please check out: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/. Clicking on a particular region will bring you to some local details about that particular area.
Taking a look at the figure below, it sure does appear that January was a wet month for us, and this may help stave off drought conditions for this growing season. To our east, it appears western North Dakota has been very dry, and if this continues, we may very well be the only area in the region not experiencing at least minor drought conditions.
Ninth Warmest Global Temperatures on Record for January: January 2013 actually tied January 1995 for the ninth warmest January since 1888 when you compute global averages. This has certainly been an on-going trend with the previous below-average January global temperature was way back in January of 1976! More specifically, the average January global temperature taking into consideration both land and ocean surfaces turned out to be 54.57°F. This compares to the 20th century average January temperature of 53.6°F. In addition to warming temperatures, January has brought a wide array of precipitation amounts around the world. Many parts of Europe, the eastern U.S., as well as areas of central and southeastern Asia, above average precipitation occurred. Areas of Austria, Burgenland and Vienna experienced as much as four times their monthly average precipitation for January! On the other hand, it was drier than average across the western U.S., southern South America and southern Australia, and southern and eastern Asia. Moreover, Viwa Island recorded only 2.20 inches of rain which is actually its fourth lowest on record for January! Jerusalem also experienced its biggest snowstorm since 1992 with as much as 8 inches of snow from that! For more details, please check out: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/1.
New Strategy for Dealing With ENSO: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has incredible influence on the distribution of global temperatures and precipitation. There are two phases to this phenomenon including the warm phase (El Niño) which is observed when the Pacific Ocean is observed to be colder than average. However, one thing that has been troubling is the idea that as the earth continues to warm, would that mean that the Pacific Ocean would be perpetually in the warm phase? Would La Niña seemingly disappear? Or, will we simply need to just redefine what is considered “warm” and what is considered “cold”? These questions have to be answered as the central tropical Pacific continues to warm as demonstrated by the figure of 30-year average temperatures. We currently define phases of ENSO based upon whether Pacific Ocean temperatures are 0.5°C above (El Niño) or below (La Niña) average. Since the average temperature is changing with time, the CPC has recently begun using five year periods in the historical record centered around a 30 year average in order to calculate La Niña and El Niño. This enables us to calculate the ENSO phase based on the very latest climatology, not what the average was decades ago. For example, 1950-1955 are compared against the 1936-1965 average. This is actually quite effective until we consider the 2001-2005 period, since that will require more years of data, 1985-2015. CPC will use the most recent 30-year average until those years have passed, which for the 2001 and 2005 period would be 1981-2010. For additional reading please see: http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2013/in-watching-for-el-nino-and-la-nina-noaa-adapts-to-global-warming.
Cold Advisory for Newborn Livestock: The cold advisory for Newborn Livestock (CANL) system is up and running. While we have been running it experimentally for about the last five years, it will now be an official product from the National Weather Service. You can find the graphics, and the information on how the system is run on our website in the headlines sections, or bookmark this URL: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/ggw/canl/canl.html.
Reader Comments(0)